Number One Industry in America How Many Pounds of Beef Per Person Per Year

Posted by David Widmar on April 5, 2021

During the elevation of doubt about the pandemic and economic shutdown, the U.South. meat sector constitute itself in the center of several COVID-related disruptions.

On the need side, consumers rushed to the grocery stores, initially elimination the shelves, while restaurant activeness slumped and summer BBQs were in limbo. However, the supply-side challenges proved to exist even more challenging throughout the spring and summer.

With some of the dubiousness settling, this week's post steps back to review U.S. meat consumption trends and the forecasts for 2020 and 2021.

U.South. Meat Consumption, 1970 – 2020

Throughout this mail, we discuss per capita meat consumption. Information technology is important to note the USDA reports these data as per capita meat disappearance. This measure is the residual of product, beginning and catastrophe inventories, import, and export data.

In other words, the USDA does not explicitly measure consumption but offers a proxy measure out that is substantially consumption. When discussing consumption, we are truly reporting the USDA's mensurate of meat disappearances. Furthermore, a decrease (or increase) in consumption is not a alter in need.

Figure 1 shows the per capita consumption of total scarlet meat and poultry since 1970. Later peaking at virtually 222 pounds in 2017, total meat consumption began to slump during the Great Recession and somewhen hit a low of 202 pounds in 2014. Beginning in 2015, meat consumption trended higher and is forecasted at 225 pounds in 2020. Looking alee, total consumption is expected to slump slightly into 2021 (224.8 in 2021 compared to 225.i in 2020).

Effigy 1. Per Capita U.S. Full Red Meat and Poultry Consumption, 1970 – 2021f. Data Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

U.South. Beef Consumption – A Long Decline, With A Recent Upturn

Beyond the total consumption trends, information technology'southward important to recognize each meat has its own set of opportunities, challenges, and trends. Figure two shows U.Southward. beef consumption, which has been a long story of turn down.

In the 1970s and early 1980s, per capita consumption was around 80 lbs. Consumption slipped but stayed effectually 65 pounds throughout the 1990s and early on 2000s. After the Great Recession, consumption slipped, again, to a low of 54 pounds.

For 2020, consumption was more than 58 pounds. On the one hand, the upturn since 2015 is significant and noteworthy. All the same, the reality is that beef consumption remains well below 65 pounds per capita, which was final observed in 2007.

For 2021, consumption is estimated to exist slightly lower than in 2020, down 0.4 pounds per capita yr over twelvemonth.

Effigy 2. Per Capita U.S. Beef Consumption, 1970 – 2021f. Data Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

U.S. Pork Consumption – Mostly Flat

Overall, pork consumption has been by and large flat at fifty pounds per capita over the last fifty years (Figure iii). At 52 pounds in 2020, forecasted consumption is expected to increase 0.5 pounds in 2021. Pork consumption has not been higher up 52 pounds per capita since 1999. Furthermore, consumption is considerably to a higher place the 2011 lows of 45.7 pounds.

Figure 3. Per Capita U.S. Pork Consumption, 1970 – 2021f. Data Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

U.S. Poultry Consumption – A Dramatic Increment

The decades-long trend toward more poultry consumption is well known. At less than 50 pounds in the early 1970s, poultry consumption is forecasted at 113 pounds in 2021. Broadly speaking, the trend is dramatically unlike from declining per capita consumption in beef and stable consumption of pork.

In the 1970s, poultry deemed for less than 25% of the total U.S. meat consumption. Since 2014, however, poultry has accounted for a majority.

Figure 4. Per Capita U.S. Total Poultry Consumption, 1970 – 2018f. Information Sources: USDA ERS and WASDE.

Wrapping it Upward – Meat Consumption Subsequently the Pandemic

Three primary observations are worth keeping in mind. First, U.S. consumption varies significantly depending on the type of meat. While total consumption is increasing, it has been largely driven past an increase in poultry consumption to offset the decline in beef and holding pattern for pork. Of class, these data don't reflect changes in overall consumer demand or full consumption. In 1970, the U.South. had an estimated population of 205 million, compared to 331 million in 2020.

Second, given all the turmoil and dubiousness in 2020, meat consumption has been fairly steady and looks to remain and so in 2021. For all iii categories, consumption in 2021 is currently forecasted to be within 0.1 pounds of 2019 levels. This was non the case during the Dandy Recession when beef (-iv.2 pounds per capita) and poultry (-5.nine pounds per capita) contracted sharply from 2007 to 2009. These forecasts will be important to monitor in the coming months.

Finally, one lesson to keep in listen from the Groovy Recession is the elapsing and magnitude of adjustments. Thinking about the current reality, one must wonder if the impacts of COVID and 2020 will also linger for years to come.

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Source: https://aei.ag/2021/04/05/u-s-meat-consumption-trends-beef-pork-poultry-pandemic/

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